SHFE tin contract showed a V-shaped trend in the morning session, with macro fluctuations dominating the high-level consolidation of futures [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On January 29, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 showed a V-shaped trend in the morning. After opening slightly higher, it pulled back to around 436,000 yuan, then quickly rebounded. By the midday close, it was at 447,750 yuan/mt, up 0.65% from the previous day's settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin followed SHFE tin in consolidating at high levels, temporarily quoted at $56,815/mt, up 0.04%.

Fundamentals present a mixed picture. Supply side, although Indonesia's RKAB policy is not yet fully clear, JFX trading activity has picked up, easing market concerns over a supply gap in Indonesia during January-February. Additionally, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources proposed plans to set a minimum cost price for tin ore to protect miners' interests and encourage tailings recovery, which may help stabilize supply expectations in the Indonesian market. However, supply uncertainties remain in regions such as Myanmar and the DRC, requiring continued monitoring.

Demand side, overall under pressure. Traditional pre-holiday restocking has been suppressed by high prices without significant volume increases. The consumer electronics market faces demand constraints due to overall rising metal prices. Although the PV sector has short-term export rush expectations due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material costs are clearly dampening order growth, resulting in limited overall consumption support. The spot market remains sluggish, with high prices significantly curbing downstream procurement.

Macro perspective, frequent geopolitical conflicts are impacting US dollar credibility, increasing market attention to nonferrous metals as safe-haven and value-storage assets. However, macro sentiment is highly volatile, and caution is needed against potential pullback risks from shifts in capital sentiment. Overall, tin prices are expected to continue consolidating at high levels in the short term. It is advisable to monitor overseas supply developments, inventory changes, and the pace of downstream operations before the holiday.